Ahead of presenting the latest draft of the Lokpal Bill before the Oppositi...
At the end of 2009, it seemed impossible.
At the end of 2010, it seemed improbable.
But 2011 makes way for 2012, it is not as far-fetched to think that the UPA may not make it to the finishing line in 2014.
Here are seven reasons why the 2014 general elections could be well preponed…
1. Anna in a Corner: It's pretty interesting to watch the "evolution" of the Anna Hazare movement.
In April it was all about anti-corruption. In August it became a shrill "Strong Lokpal or bust".
December onwards it is looking increasingly anti-Congress, anti-UPA, anti-dynasty…
A situation has been reached that both sides have hardened their stands.
The Lokpal draft is such a joke that it is doubtful that it can be strengthened and so the Anna movement might well want it trashed.
So where does that leave us?
Anna cannot come out with anti-corruption laws by himself, so since he has been pushed into a corner, the only option before him will be to try to topple the government. While he may not directly say it, it could happen, totally brushing aside the Lokpal issue.
2. Collective Responsibility: There is something called collective responsibility. If a Cabinet fails, then the Prime Minister fails. Usually in most of India's scams, all the focus used to be centred on one erring leader or minister. Not here.
A Raja. M Kanimozhi. Suresh Kalmadi. Three leaders in Tihar Jail is a new record. Another bigwig in the form of Amar Singh is a ticking time bomb.
Raja was the shield for Home Minister P Chidambaram. With Raja out of the way, India's top fighter Subramanian Swamy is gunning for the Home Minister. The problem is that if Chidambaram falls, then PM Manmohan Singh will be in the direct line of fire.
3. UP Elections: The unravelling of heir apparent Rahul Gandhi actually started in the 2010 Bihar elections. When he entered the Lok Sabha in 2004, it coincided with his party coming to power. In 2009, he toured the country and his party fared better.
The stage seemed set for him to become Prime Minister. One rumour at that time was that Manmohan Singh would become the President of India in 2012, when Rahul would take the PM's post.
It seems far-fetched now, but quite believable at that time.
So when Rahul campaigned in the 2010 Bihar elections, there was great hope. The result? The Congress went ahead and contested all 243 seats and won just 4! That's a winning percentage of 2% in terms of seats contested. That's got to be a record!
It was downhill after that.
There is no way that the Congress can come to power in the UP elections. But that's not the issue. The Congress has 22/403 seats. So will it better that performance or will it be worse?
50+ seats would see the Congress claiming a moral victory. Less than 10 seats and the entire Opposition would cite that as a sign that the Congress had lost its mandate to rule.
The other elections also pose a problem. It is not ruling the bigger states that go to the polls in 2012, namely Gujarat, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Capturing power in these four states will be tough.
It is ruling in the smaller states of Manipur and Goa. If it loses both of them, then the results could be disastrous.
4. Policy Paralysis: Whether the UPA denies it or not, India is facing a policy paralysis. The real problem is that moves that could boost the economy like FDI in retail will never be passed and populist schemes like the Food Security Bill will make matters worse.
Usually a government goes for populism in the fag end of its term. To do so with general elections about two plus years away would be disastrous. If the Congress focuses too much on the 2012 state elections, then it could well lose sight of the goalpost that is 2014, which might end up being shifted to 2013 or 2012!
5. Mamata Wild Card: West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is the real wild card. She threatened to pull out over the petrol price hike in the past. She is only worried about her state.
The problem is that if she thinks that the anti-incumbency of the Congress will severely affect her West Bengal Lok Sabha seat tally in 2014, she may be tempted to pull the plug well before that to minimize her losses.
6. Economy, Economy, Economy: Hikes are getting worse. Inflation is going through the roof. Now industrial growth is at rock bottom. With the world economy the way it is and the UPA looking clueless, things are going to get worse.
If the government introduces even more populist schemes, then the economy will truly hit rock bottom. It is quite difficult to see how the common Indian citizen will take it lying down for two odd years!
7. Congress Arrogance: If things go bad, then you can either make it better or worse.
The Congress is bent on making it worse.
Reeling under successive scams, it could have come out with a strong Lokpal to shut everyone up, but it has done quite the opposite.
Facing a strong Anna surge in August, they could have pacified him.
Yet they arrested him and made him the nation's biggest hero.
Cyberspace is seething with anti-Congress sentiment.
You could either ignore it or try some damage control or do some good PR.
The government talked censorship.
Overnight that anti-Congress sentiment doubled.
How can you be sure that mid-term polls won't take place, when the government itself is bent on digging its own grave!
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Will China do a Kargil on India?
The author is a Bangalore-based journalist and blogger. He blogs at http://sunilrajguru.com/
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