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Saturday, May 17, 2014

SENSEX RISES 1470 PTS, BUT FALLS 1200 ON PROFIT-BOOKING Cheery D-St Expects a Wave of NaMo Inflows

May 17 2014 : The Economic Times (Kolkata)
SENSEX RISES 1470 PTS, BUT FALLS 1200 ON PROFIT-BOOKING Cheery D-St Expects a Wave of NaMo Inflows

Investors drove benchmark indices to new highs as the Sensex rose above 25,000 mark for the first time with BJP winning a thumping victory that saw it gain a majority on its own, which means it won't be held hostage to demands of coalition allies and can push forward with a reform agenda that should set the stage for economic revival.

Languishing in the wilder ness after a shock defeat in 2004, BJP stormed back to power on Monday , winning 282 out of 543 elected seats in the Lok Sabha.
The BJP-led NDA had won 333 seats till late on Friday and will form the government in the next few days. It's the first time in 30 years that one party has got a majority on its own. Investors, relishing the prospect of a strong government, sent the Nifty to over 7,200. The BJP has the numbers to form the government on its own but the party is expected to rope in its pre-poll allies in a coalition. The Sensex rose 4.9% over the week to a record of 24,121.74 on Friday while the Nifty jumped 5.2% to 7,203. The indices have been among the best performers in emerging markets, rising 13.94% and 14.26%, respectively .

"Change is indeed sweeping the country ," said Motilal Oswal, chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "In my view this is the best time to invest in equities for the medium to long term. A portfolio mix of growth and cyclical stocks would yield far bigger returns than debt or for that matter any other asset class."

Indian stocks have outperformed most emerging market indices so far this year on hopes that elections and a new government headed by BJP's Narendra Modi will end policy uncertainty and revive investment. But the results exceeded expectations and most exit poll projections. Given the margin, the chances of a decisive, reform-oriented government has increased manifold, investors believe.

"The current bull market to continue with some correction in next few days," said Nirmal Jain, chairman of India Infoline. "Sensex to touch 30,000 by year-end. Though some of the sectors are expensive, many of them including cyclicals, banking, industrial and consumer discretions are way off from their peak and these are the sectors to rally going forward."

Some of the biggest gainers on Friday include JP Power, up 8.19% to Rs 18.22, Axis Bank, up 7.9% to Rs 1,795. All sectors, except three ended in the green with the BSE Bankex rising 4.39% and the BSE Realty index gaining 5.97%. The consumer goods index fell 1.85% and the IT index slipped 2.22% while the healthcare index fell 1.39%.Sesa Sterlite was the biggest gainer on the Nifty , rising 11.05% on hopes that the new government will push for the lifting of the ban on iron ore mining in force in many parts of the country. Punjab National Bank rose 8.16% to Rs 924.95 on hopes that a Modi-led government will find a way to resolve the bad assets on bank balance sheets. Bharat Petroleum rose 6.85% while DLF rose 6.50% to Rs 170.35. State Bank gained 5.95% to Rs 2,414 while ICICI Bank gained 5.38% to Rs 1,470.15.

India has been ruled by a series of coalition governments since 1989, with the single largest party dependent on allies for majority and thereby being held hostage to them.
That era has come to an end.

"It is interesting that we have such a clear mandate after 30 years," said Rashesh Shah, chairman and CEO, Edelweiss Group. "This is good news for economic growth. We needed a clear verdict to get the economy back on track."

Rating agency S&P said on Friday that it expects the new government's reform initiatives in economic and fiscal policies in the next two to three months may have significant implications on the sovereign credit rating on India's rating.

"In our view, NDA's strong showing indicates that it will have a reasonably good political platform to tackle structural issues," it said.

"What the next government says and does in the coming months is crucial to boosting confidence in the policy settings and the economy ," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Takahira Ogawa. "If confidence rises, investment and consumption in India could strengthen, after being held back by the uncertainty surrounding the election." Deutsche Bank increased the target for the Sensex to 28,000 for the year-end while Macquarie set a target of 8,200 for the Nifty from 7200. "We draw an analogy with the Japanese market which moved up 80% in six months in anticipation of refor ms ­ in this regard, Modinomics is matching the Abenomics euphoria," said Rakesh Arora, Macquarie Capital in a report titled Eye on India.

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